Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Purdue | No brainer to me. The body of work is impressive. |
2 | Houston | Impressive thumpings so far. Need to see them in some Q1A games other than Dayton. |
3 | Arizona | Basically 3rd in every metric I check. |
4 | Kansas | The predictive metrics are getting really down on Kansas, but they're top 3 in SOR and WAB. I trust Bill Self and their home court. |
5 | UConn | Probably not the 5th best team in the country without Clingan, but the road win at Butler where they trailed at halftime did show me something. And Clingan should be back in a couple weeks. |
6 | Tennessee | Predictive would slot in Tennessee above UConn, but their resume still needs a bit more work. |
7 | North Carolina | At this point, teams start to be either strong in predictives or resumes, but NC is top ~10 in both. |
8 | Wisconsin | Similar to NC, is fairly strong in all types of metrics. 6-3 in Q1+2. |
9 | Marquette | It's possible that all 4 of their losses are to tournament teams on the road/neutral. I'm not counting them out yet. |
10 | Auburn | Extremely strong predictive numbers, and also 4-2 in Q1+2. |
11 | Kentucky | 4-1 Q1+2, but with Q3 loss. Metrics mostly in mid teens across the board, resume in 20s. |
12 | Baylor | Well rounded metrics. |
13 | Illinois | Strong predictives, but no Shannon, losing record Q1+2, were down a million to Purdue. |
14 | Oklahoma | Best predictives of the big resume, mediocre metrics teams. |
15 | Duke | Wide disparity of metrics. Eye test looks good lately. 3-3 Q1+2. |
16 | San Diego State | Not sure how to differentiate these 2. Very similar profiles |
17 | Colorado State | Not sure how to differentiate these 2. Very similar profiles |
18 | Creighton | Strong predictives, 5-4 Q1+2. |
19 | BYU | Extremely strong predictives, but very weak SOS. |
20 | Memphis | 7-2 Q1+2. Extremely strong resume. But mostly sub 40 predictives. |
21 | Alabama | Extremely strong predictives, but 0-5 Q1. |
22 | Dayton | Top 7 resume, but outside the top 30 predictives. |
23 | Clemson | Balanced metrics, pretty much all top 25. Despite back to back losses, resume is better than you think. 5-3 Q1+2. |
24 | Nevada | Top 20 resume metrics and predictives inside top 40. 2-1 Q1+2. |
25 | Utah State | 4-1 Q1+2, top 20 resume. |
Missed a couple polls due to the holidays and some personal matters. Decided to start fresh. It gets real hard after #7. Stronger resume than predictives: Oklahoma, Memphis, Dayton, Wisconsin, Colorado St, SDSU Stronger predictives than resume: Auburn, Alabama, BYU, Michigan St, Illinois, Duke Also considered (no order): Michigan St, FAU, St. John's, Utah, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Iowa St, TCU, Cincinnati, Texas Tech