Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Purdue | |
2 | UConn | |
3 | Houston | |
4 | North Carolina | |
5 | Tennessee | |
6 | Marquette | |
7 | Iowa State | |
8 | Arizona | |
9 | Creighton | |
10 | Kansas | |
11 | South Carolina | |
12 | Baylor | |
13 | Illinois | |
14 | Auburn | |
15 | Alabama | |
16 | Utah State | |
17 | Duke | |
18 | Gonzaga | |
19 | Texas Tech | |
20 | Nevada | |
21 | BYU | |
22 | Kentucky | |
23 | Dayton | |
24 | Nebraska | |
25 | Indiana State |
I rank teams mostly by resume, as if the season ended today and I were ranking them for the tournament. I am not trying to find the “best” team, I’m trying to find the “most deserving team”. In other words, my rankings are backwards-looking, not forwards-looking. ------------ I use eye-test evaluations along with computer metrics to inform my rankings. I do not place additional weight on more recent games. Having a good record relative to SOS is the most important thing for my rankings. Sometimes, a team may have an excellent resume despite poor SOS (such as previous years’ Gonzaga), or a poor resume despite a great SOS (some .500 power conference teams). If your team wins more games against its schedule than other teams would win against that same schedule, then your team has a good resume. ------------ FAQ: ------------ 1. Why is my team ranked so low? My team is ranked #5 in kenpom! -- It’s likely that your team has a resume that’s relatively poor. I bet your team will do pretty well later in the season, but until then, I’ll rank the team with the better resume higher. ------------ 2. Why is that team ranked so high? They don’t even have any ranked wins! -- That team likely still has a good resume! A win against an okay team can be just as good as a win against a great team, depending on where the game is played. An average top-25 team is as likely to win on the road against the #75 team as it is to win hosting the #10. ------------ 3. How do you have Team A ranked over Team B? Team B just whalloped Team A! -- Single game results are only a small part of a team's larger whole body of work. Team A dropped in my rankings according to how bad their loss was, and Team B rose according to how good their win was. I don’t assign any additional weight to the game.