CarnivoreEndurance's Week Pre-Season Ballot
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Purdue | Bring back everything from a team that was dominant (almonst) the entire year. Highest floor of any team |
| 2 | Kansas | The only other team I'd be legit shocked to see fall below the 2 line or so. Sorta feels too high with a lot of turnover but Hunter is obviously a big get and Self gets a lot of benefit of the doubt |
| 3 | Houston | Another team with some turnover + benefit of the doubt. Feel like people are slightly low on Houston because of the conference change. Yeah they might lose 8 games but that could be a 1 seed still |
| 4 | Marquette | Would have a good argument for 1 with O Max. |
| 5 | Duke | Need to see that presumed Proctor leap to move them higher. They weren't THAT great last year after all |
| 6 | Creighton | If Kalf anchors another top 25 defense and Trey+Baylor+Ashworth shoot 40% from 3, CU could contend for a title |
| 7 | UConn | Lot of turnover, lot of talent. Picking 3rd in the Big East unless Clingan really does pull a full Edey |
| 8 | Tennessee | Will play great defense, be top 10 kenpom, lose a couple games they shouldn't |
| 9 | Florida Atlantic | Bring back basically an entire final four roster that was top 20 good last year |
| 10 | Michigan State | Think they're being a little overrated by most. Weren't that great last year, lose a key piece. Getting a lot of credit for brand/coach. Still gonna be very good though |
| 11 | Saint Mary's | Might have been a top 10ish quality team last year but got Uconn in round 2. Pretty much everyone is back so... |
| 12 | Texas A&M | Decent team running it all back |
| 13 | Gonzaga | Another major turnover team getting credit for solid individual pieces and long tradition of success |
| 14 | San Diego State | Big question will be if they can create reliable shots without Bradley |
| 15 | Villanova | Placing a lot of faith in Kyle Neptune to figure things out, but the roster seems fantastic |
| 16 | Arizona | Enough returning/incoming pieces + Lloyd. We'll see if Love meshes... |
| 17 | Texas | Kinda similar to Nova in that its hard to completely trust the coach yet. Won't have quite the same wealth of talent as last year |
| 18 | Baylor | A little opposite of Texas. Presumed high floor due to consistency/Scott Drew |
| 19 | Arkansas | Throw a dart I guess. So many moving parts like always. Imagine they could start a little slow then make another sweet 16 |
| 20 | North Carolina | Imagining a degree of additional by subtraction here |
| 21 | USC | Collier + Boogie should be good enough to be top 25 |
| 22 | Kentucky | Another throw a dart team. Tons of talent but tough to trust it too much off the bat |
| 23 | Alabama | So good last year - some pieces return and Oats is a good coach |
| 24 | Maryland | Sort of guessing from a pool of like a dozen teams now. Young will be really good |
| 25 | Auburn | Maybe a little underrated with all they bring back? Why not Auburn at 25 |
Overall Rationale
Attempting to use season-long performance (Kenpom, etc.) as a baseline rather than fixating on tournament results, then adjusting (or trying to) for often massive degrees of turnover. Some teams (Purdue, Marquette) are easy to imagine being very good with all they bring back, others (Kentucky, Arkansas, even Kansas and Houston to a degree) are tougher to grasp with so many newcomers. No, I didn't forget about Miami - I just think they're super overrated. If FAU had lost to Memphis I'd look at them and say "hey a top 25 team that brings back the whole lineup, clearly a top 15ish team." And so I do the same here. If Miami hadn't rallied against Drake, I'd say "hey a top 50 team that lost arguably its 2 best players, clearly not a top 25 team. And so I do the same here. I'm also assuming no waiver for Memphis, or I'd probably have them ranked also.